Fremtiden efter krisen Marianne Levinsen, cand.scient.pol, fremtidsforsker og Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d., fremtidsforsker Danmark er i den dybeste krisen siden 1930erne, men om nogle ar vil vi se tilbage pa den som en forholdsvis let overgang. Hvorfor? Fordi dybden af krisen er medieskabt, fordi vi traenger til en krise, fordi indsatsen med krisen ma blive omfattende og fordi de unge, der jo skaber fremtiden, vil reagere anderledes pa krisen ens resten af befolkningen. Det er let at vaere optimist, nar det gar godt. Det er straks svaerere, nar alle siger, det gar skidt. Men der er faktisk god grund til optimisme selv under den krise, der har vaeret en kendsgerning siden det tidlige efterar 2008. Det er blot svaert at traenge igennem med budskabet. Det er et faktum, at vaeksten er forsvundet fra dansk okonomi, og at mange virksomheder har kraftig ordrenedgang og foretager afskedigelser. Bruttonationalproduktet faldt i 3 kvartal 2008 og den samlede okonomi har vaeret naesten uden vaekst i 1½ ar. Arbejdslosheden er stigende. Men det er ikke nogen afgrundsdyb krise. Danmark har stadig Europas laveste arbejdsloshed. Der er stadig mangel pa arbejdskraft mange steder. Tvangsauktioner pa det kriseramte boligmarked var pa 341 i december maned 2008 - naesten ikke over tallet i oktober. Da der virkeligt var krise pa bolig-markedet fra 1987 til 92, var der op til 3000 tvangsauktioner pa en maned og 300.000 arbejdslose. Det var en virkelig krise. 1970ernes krise var dyb og langvarig med strukturelle problemer i dansk okonomi ? hoj inflation, stort underskud pa betalingsbalancen og et kaempestort offentligt underskud. 1930ernes krise foregik slet ikke det samme samfund - velfaerdsstaten eksisterede ikke, internationalt var frihandelsaftaler skrobelige og fa, og det internationale samfund var ude af stand til at samarbejde. Men krisen i USA er dyb, andre lande har ogsa store problemer, og det kommer selvfolgelig til at pavirke os. Men da dansk okonomi er i topform pa alle de klassiske punkter som inflation, arbejdsloshed, betalingsbalance og offentligt budgetoverskud, kommer vi langt lettere gennem krisen end store dele af verden. Om nogle ar vil vi derfor se tilbage pa krisen med et overbaerende smil - na, ja det gik da let over hos os. Krisens mediemaessige anatomi Det er bare ikke en god historie i en medieverden, hvor der er flere medier til at fortaelle de samme nyheder. Der skal katastrofer til. Store dimensioner og live billeder fortraekkes. Derfor beskriver medierne krisen som verdens undergang. Jo mere dystert eksperter ser pa udviklingen, jo mere spal-teplads og sendetid far de. Der er gaet inflation i krisen - jo mere, jo bedre. Den modsatte historie om den milde krise er ikke interessant. Historierne skal formidles og skaeres til, sa alle kan forsta dem. Den kvalificerede analyse har det isaer svaert i de elektroniske medier. Kan man ikke finde en ekspert, der passer til historiens dramaturgi, kan man altid saette to journali-ster til at interviewe hinanden om krisen og konsekvenserne. De ved, hvordan historien skal skaeres. Hvis andre historier som eksempelvis krigen i Gaza bliver storre, er der et kort andehul i krisen. Men den vender frygteligt tilbage, nar der ikke er andre, store nyheder. Derfor er dybden af krisen medieskabt. Det er simpelthen en alt for god nyhed til at lade den miste betydning. Det betyder ogsa, at krisen kan blive selvforstaerkende. Hvis vi handler som om alt gar skidt, bliver situationen vaerre. Nar detailhandlen gar i sta, bliver der hojere arbejdsloshed, Danskerne far faktisk flere penge mellem haenderne til naeste ar pa grund af skattelettelser, men hvis pengene bliver i borgernes lommer, bliver omsaetningen lavere. Derfor er det positive budskab vig-tigt. Krisen er relativt mild i Danmark og gar over i lobet af et til to ar uden at efterlade alt for store ar. Fornuftig politisk styring i krisetider Den forste reaktion pa krise i samfundsudviklingen var benaegtelsen ? hos os maerker vi intet. Derefter erstattes benaegtelsen af katastrofeteorier. Det sagte om dybden af krisen er ofte svaert at relatere til fakta. Et ugebrev lancerede hele 7 gensidigt forstaerkende kriser. I virkeligheden er de fleste af disse tendenser modsatrettede. Nar sortsynet har dannet skole, er der mulighed for at se lyset for enden af tunnelen. Hvis realia i okonomien er pa plads, oplever vi igen fremgang og vaekst. Nye ideer erstatter stilstand. Lige indtil naeste krise. Men bevaegelsen over krisen kraever en indsats fra Regeringen og Nationalbanken. Nationalbanken har forelobigt bidraget til krisen ved at haeve renten og derefter holde et historisk hojt rentespaend til Euro-zonen. Det har vaeret nodvendigt pa grund af krisen i bankverdenen, men det kan tort konsta-teres, at det ikke hjaelper os over den okonomiske krise. Regeringen har planer om en skattereformen. Denne reform ser ud til at bygge pa, at vi far arbejdskraftmangel i fremtiden. Det far vi ogsa. Det vi har oplevet de seneste 3-4 ar er vand mod de kommende ars udvikling, nar vi er pa den anden side af krisen. Reformen vil give borgerne flere penge til forbrug - i det mindste i en overgangsperiode. De gronne afgifter risikere dog at laegge gift ud for boligmarkedet, hvis de belaster husejerne kraftigt Nar Nationalbanken er nodt til at holde renten hojere end eurorenten, kan vi ikke fremme okonomien nok via pengepolitikken. Det har ellers vaeret god latin siden begyndelse af 1980erne at regulere okonomien via rente og kreditekspansion. Tilbage er finanspolitikken. Gamle Keynes bliver genopdaget rundt om i Verden i disse maneder. Der skal fores en ekspansiv finanspolitik i nedgangstider for at stimulere eftersporgslen. USA med Praesident Obama gar forrest bade med pengepolitik og finanspolitik. Renten ned til naesten nul og en massiv indsprojtning af penge fra det offentlige til okonomien. I Danmark sker der ikke noget. Regeringen har lanceret en trafikplan, der i bedste fald vil anvende lige sa mange penge pa trafikomradet de kommende ti ar, som der er anvendt de foregaende 10 ar. Der er kun nye penge i forhold til statens normale investeringer i Femern-forbindelsen, og det var allerede besluttet inden krisen. Kriser giver mulighed for investeringer i fremtiden. Der bliver i en periode mindre pres pa arbejdsmarkedet. Der er brug for investeringer i infrastruktur i Danmark. Vi korer i tog, der ligger langt under europaeisk standard i hastighed og der er ingen planer om TGV tog i Danmark. En Kattegatbro ville afgorende aendre landets geografi. En tredje limfjordsforbindelse er der stort behov for. Dertil kommer de planlagte udvidelser af motorvejsnettet, metro og letbaner - alle nodvendige, men ikke tilstraekkelige investeringer. Endelig er der et stort behov for renovering af offentlige bygninger. Investeringer i krisetider er vigtige - det er ofte det bedste vej ud af krisen. Ellers begar den nuvaerende regering fejl i krisehandteringen som Anker Jorgensens regering gjorde i 1970erne. Dengang stimulerede man okonomien, da man forventede en hurtigt overstaet krise. Det gav inflation, betalingsbalanceunderskud og en meget hoj rente. En indsats mod inflationen havde vaeret bedre. Man brugte Keynes i stedet for monetarisme. I dag er det omvendt. Det er pengepolitikken, der er i hojsaedet, men vi risikere at arbejde den forkerte vej. Forbrug og detailhandel Forbrugsforventninger er i bund. Krisen pavirker forbrugerne og detailhandlen, og lige nu er usik-kerheden enorm. Kan vi forvente et fornuftig forbrug i 2009 eller er forbruget pa vej i haelene pa aktiekurserne? Kriser kommer med passende mellemrum. Det skete ogsa i 2001, i 1987, i 1980 og 1973 for blot at runde nogle af de seneste krisers begyndelse.Der sker folgende i detailhandlen: Forst skaerer vi ned pa det hele. Salamimetoden betyder faerre restaurantbesog, faerre shoppingturer, faerre eller kortere ferier i udlandet og billigere mad. Vi skaerer lidt over det hele. Discountbutikker har allerede haft stor fremgang det seneste 1½ ar efter en lille pause under de kraftige frivaerdistigninger 2004-7. Nu folger udviklingen i udvalgs-varehandlen. Vi vil se fald i omsaetningen og faerre og billigere varer i forbrugernes haender. Efter 1 eller 2 ar foretager vi en omprioritering. Vi holder helt op med noget af forbruget og lader andre omrader vokse igen. Kan man ikke undvaere skiferien kommer den igen op pa normalt om-fang og standard, men maske tilbringes sommeren i hjemmet i Danmark. Det er her, detailhandlen skal vaere klar. Nar forbruget aendrer sammensaetning, vil vi finde vindere og tabere - ikke blot generel nedgang. Hvem vinder? Tidsanden bestemmer i hoj grad vores valg af forbrug, som ellers er underlagt store tilfaeldigheder. Vi ved egentligt ikke, hvad vi har behov for, men kober alligevel noget vi ikke kan undvaere. Det faenomen er pavist i adskillige forbrugsundersogelser. Opsvinget og det demonstrative forbrug har staet pa sa laenge, at et skifte er godt for folkesjaelen. Derfor er krisen ogsa velkommen blandt mange. Under en krise aendrer tidsanden sig nemlig. Under denne krise aendrer tidsanden sig fra kravet om det optimale, om indhold, mening og sub-stans til eskapisme. Forbrugerne onsker at flygte, hvad gang det gar ned. Kriser er som november maned hele aret. Vi gar ogsa fra det demonstrative og udadvendte til det indadvendte. Vi samles om hyggen derhjemme og vender ryggen til omverdenen. Produkters udformning og virkemade bliver vigtigere end deres CO2 aftryk og samvittighedscentificering Flugt er svaret pa krisens gra hverdag. Vi vil taenke pa noget andet. Verdens problemer kommer alt for taet pa, sa vi soger en lille pause eller en anden verden. Den lille pause er den lille luksus. Et stykke chokolade frem for en ny frakke. Modet med venner pa intime steder erstatter gourmet-middagene, og i stedet for et kokken til 200.000 kroner, kober vi en god kaffe, nye lager og tapet eller en luksus brodrister Tidsanden kan ogsa ses i farverne. Moden er pa vej vaek fra sort, hvidt og grat. I opgangsstider er farverne afdaempede, under kriser er det modsat. Det er vor tids erstatning for kjolelaengderne, der for i tiden var konjunktur¬indikatoren fra modebranchen. Kriser giver nu kraftige farver i moden - bare vent til foraret - det bliver en fryd at se de nye farver i gadebilledet. Firhjulstraekkeren skal pa museum sammen med designerkokkenet. I stedet kommer det introverte pa mode. At sidde i skumringen og hygge sig sammen, er erstatning for forbrugsfesten. Bal i haven i stedet for udekokkenet og den ekstrastore Weber-grill. Storst bliver overgangen fra det etiske til det aestetiske. Alle de overvejelser, vi gjorde os, da der ikke var andre udfordringer at tage stilling til, star for skud. Den forandring kommer isaer fra de unge. Detailhandlens udfordring er at vaere parat med det nye, nar vi er faerdige med at blot at skaere. Det er ogsa at stjaele omsaetning fra konkurrenterne. Men konkurrenter er i dag ikke sa meget butikker i samme branche, som alle i detailhandlen samt restaurations- og underholdningsbranchen. Kampen bliver om det lose forbrug. Konkurrencen bliver ogsa mellem byer og bydele. Det er nemt at drive detailhandlen under en optur. Sandhedens time kommer under en nedtur. Hvilke shoppingomrader overlever og udbygges, og hvilke far de afgorende banesar? Attraktiviteten i de enkelte byer, bydele, gagader og shopping-centre vil afgore det. Her er stemning, teknologi, bymaessigt attraktivitet og butiksudvalg af vital betydning. De kommuner og handelsstandsforeninger, der har handlet i tide, star bedst rystet. Arbejdsmarked, ledighed og ledelsesteorier. Arbejdsmarkedet har vaeret hot og attraktivt set fra lonmodtagersiden de sidste 10 ar. Var man utilfreds med lon, chefens ledelsesstil og andre forhold fandt man bare en ny arbejdsplads ? hurtigt et nyt sted at sla sine folder. Danskerne er verdensmestre i jobskifte og i sidste ars gode tider har givet turbo pa jobskifte i mange brancher. Arbejdsgiverne har tilbudt mere lon, mere fryns og helhedsorienteret anerkendende ledelse i kampen om de velkvalificerede pa arbejdsmarkedet. Storre ledighed giver arbejdsgiverne flere kort pa handen, og generelt vil det betyde mindre fokus pa hojere lon og fryns. Ledighed vil stige, men slet ikke til niveauet fra 1993, hvor vi havde 358.000 ledige personer svarende til 12,8 procent af arbejdsstyrken. De mest pessimistiske taler om 140.000 arbejdslose. Handtering af ledighed er ogsa aendret. Virksomheder patager sig i dag i langt hojere grad end tidli-gere ansvaret for at hjaelpe de medarbejdere, de ikke laengere kan tilbyde en ansaettelse, videre til et nyt job. Virksomheder indenfor vidensservice har vaeret i vaekst og ogsa vil skabe flere jobs de naeste 10 ar. Der vil ikke pa lang sigt vaere eftersporgsel efter ufaglaert arbejdskraft. Derimod vil der stadigvaek vaere stort behov for veluddannede medarbejdere bade faglaerte og folk med en laengere uddannelse. Det er nu og ikke i morgen regering, uddannelsesinstitutioner og virksomheder skal satse massivt pa uddannelsesomradet og sorge for at den danske arbejdsstyrke kan klare sig i fremtiden. De seneste ars ledelsesteorier har vaeret praeget af blode vaerdier som anerkendelse, ansvar for lon-modtagere og coaching. Vi ved, at ledelsesteorier ligesom moden folger den okonomiske udvikling og okonomiske nedtur betyder, at hardcore ledelsesteori med fokus pa effektivitet og produktivitet far mere vind i sejlene de naeste par ar. Men manglen pa unge vil vaere en kraftig modvaegt til denne udvikling. En stor udfordring er fremtidens organisation. Storstedelen af private og offentlige virksomheder organiseres og ledes efter ledelsesprincipper og teorier, som er 100 ar gamle. De horer til en helt anden samfundsformation. Taylor er stadig grundlaget for konstruktionen af organisationer og idealet pa produktionsomradet. Max Weber er stadig grundlaget for forstaelsen af organisationer og hans idealmodel for et bureaukrati anvendes stadig i det daglige. Hvorfor er intet aendrer pa 100 ar, nar vi ved, at disse organisationer, ledelses og motivationsteorier ikke fremmer og frisaetter menne-sker fulde potentiale til gavn for virksomheden og dem selv. Det er tid til at opfinde nye organisationsformer! De unge og krisen. Ungdomsgenerationerne er store i de kommende ar. Isaer aldersgruppen mellem 20 og 30 ar vil vokse. Disse unge vil for forste gang i livet maerke nedgang, hvor det ikke er frit valg pa alle hylder. De unge har indtil nu kun oplevet fremgang og forbrugsraketten har kun haft en retning, nemlig opad. De kommer til at opleve fyring og nedgang for forste gang i deres liv. De skal etablere familie og huskob efter, at der kan ske nedgang i indtaegterne. De vil fa det praksis-chok, andre generationer oplevede i perioden 1987 til 1993. Men de skal nok klare det. De unge bor i dag fortrinsvis til leje og er ikke underlagt prioritetslan og hoje faste udgifter De unge er mestre i at indga i mange nye kombinationer af personer, aktiviteter og vaerdier, og er i hoj grad socialiseret til at tilpasse sig forskellige sammenhaenge. Den evne vil komme dem til gode, nar det pludselig bliver svaerere at fa drommejobbet og vaelge og vrage. De er digitale indfodte og vant til at finde informationer, nyheder, spil og musik pa internettet og ikke mindst vaere med og agere i sociale netvaerk. de lever fysisk og digitalt pa samme tid og oplevelserne fra skituren, fyringen og arbejdspladsen skal deles med andre unge pa nettet, for det foles helt rigtigt. Inden laenge ser vi saerlige facebookgrupper med kriserad til andre unge pa www.facebook.com. De unge forbrugere tager til byen og storcenteret for at haenge ud, isaer for at vaere sammen med andre unge og kobe toj, parfume, ga i biffen eller i fitnesscenteret. Forskellige forbrugsarenaer med musik, shopping og unge menneskestromme er nutidens og fremtidens ungdomsklubber - hvor de unge modes, shopper, far kaerester og nye kontakter. Dette forbrugsmonster vil ikke aendre sig under krisen. De vil stadig forbruge spontant efter pengepungens storrelse, stemningen og selskab med andre unge - blot i lidt billigere butikker. Discount i laekker indpakning som H & M vil fa gyldne ar under krisen. Trenden blandt de unge er, at maerkevarer er yt. Det er ikke sa sejt, nar lillesoster pa 9 ar har en Burberry bikini. Sa De store maerker far svaert ved at fastholde de unge forbrugere. Iscenesaettelsen og skabelsen af en personlig stil og eget brand vil fortsat vaere en dominerende trend blandt de unge. Flere unge vil overveje uddannelse i krisetider, sa det er nu skoler og uddannelsessystemer skal gore det yderste for at uddanne fremtidens arbejdskraft til gavn for virksomheder og samfund. Unge forventer en individuel behandling og en vifte af muligheder, nar de vaelger uddannelse og arbejde. Deres vaerdier er, at skabe sin egen succes og gribe de rigtige muligheder. Tilbyder vi ikke det, er de hurtigt videre til andet arbejde eller anden uddannelse. De soger hurtigt nye muligheder, hvis en branche er ramt af krise. Kriser skaber ivaerksaettere. De unge vil vaere fremtidens ivaerksaettere og forsta at lave nye fysiske og digitale produkter af en bedre kvalitet til en billigere pris. Forvent mange unge succesfulde ivaerksaettere de naeste 2-4 ar. Lev med krisen og forbered fremtiden Sa skulle den krise vist vaere barberet! Vi skal se pa de nye udfordringer og forsta dem, samtidig med, at vi forbereder os pa tiden efter krisen. Der er rigtigt meget, der skal aendres, men der er heldigvis lydhorhed og forstaelse for gennemgribende aendringer, mens krisen raser. Sa lad os benytte lejligheden til at fa det gjort, mens chancen er her. Kilde.: Fremforsk, Center for fremtidsforskning ? www.fremforsk.dk ? Email: jbj@fremforsk.dk
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